Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 66.2%
Prognostiker
39
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet29. Aug. 23, 10:03 UTC1. Jan. 60, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
How much utility-scale solar power will the US install in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Earth have a Space Elevator before 2060?
Manifold MarketsHow much solar power will the world install in 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS solar capacity installed in 2026
KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves YES if the earth's total (known, published) capacity for space-based solar power exceeds 2GW, averaged over 1 hour, any time before the year 2060.
- This refers to power generated by solar panels in space being transmitted to earth and captured for terrestrial use, at the output of the rectenna/receiver.
- This can be satisfied by the sum of multiple systems across multiple nations.
- This can be satisfied by the sum total of military LEO power delivery, but only if confirmed/published by corresponding authorities.
- I anticipate (and would prefer) that this will instead be satisfied by a geostationary system intended primarily for civilian benefit.
- Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Space-based reflectors do not count.
Offene Märkte
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 581.272,5 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 55,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 96.847,5 €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 66% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060? entschieden?
- Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060? soll am 1. Januar 2060 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if the earth's total (known, published) capacity for space-based solar power exceeds 2GW, averaged over 1 hour, any time before the year 2060.