Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 89.5%
Prognostiker
4
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 16 Stunden
Veraltet19. Juni 26, 10:32 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if China invades Taiwan before 2028.
- I won't bet in this market.
- Resolution is left up to Tumbles's judgement.
- Feel free to ask questions about resolution, but be aware that ultimately resolution will be based on Tumbles's estimation of the spirit of the market.
- Generally an invasion involves military mobilization and a very significant undermining of sovereignty by force.
- As an example, I would count the capture of Maduro as an invasion because he was Venezuela's head of state and it involved overpowering Venezuela's military defenses.
