Will "Chicken-Free Egg Whites" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
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Will "Help me launch Obsolete: a book aimed at buil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Dario probably doesn't believe in superintell..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegeln
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Chicken-Free Egg Whites is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Offene Märkte
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
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KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 203076%
- Before 2029+38.1pt70%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 153.913,6 €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-0.3pt5%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28,6 Mio. €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+5.0pt75.5%
- 2-0.5pt21.6%
- 32%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
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KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-3.6pt77%
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- 3457,9 €
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- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will "Chicken-Free Egg Whites" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 85% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will "Chicken-Free Egg Whites" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? entschieden?
- Will "Chicken-Free Egg Whites" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? soll am 1. Februar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will "Chicken-Free Egg Whites" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.