Will "If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
KIOne-Off1JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 87.1%
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Will "OpenAI employees: Now is the time to stop doi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "The policy surrounding Mythos marks an irreve..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Even "illegible" Mythos reasoning traces seem..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4x more productive, I would radically shorten my timelines is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 132.799,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.316,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 322.392,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
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- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will "If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 87% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will "If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? entschieden?
- Will "If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? soll am 1. Februar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will "If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.