Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 98.6%
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet10. Aug. 25, 09:10 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
KalshiWhen will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
KalshiWhen will P vs NP be resolved?
KalshiWill formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill "Lies, Damned Lies, and Proofs: Formal Methods..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill P vs NP be resolved by 2043?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Market will be resolved to Yes if at least one of the open problems from DeepMind's formal-conjectures gets decided before 2027.
- Only problems which is added to the main branch of the repository before the creation of this market will be considered.
- The problem should have 'open' tag and should be completely proven via Lean
Offene Märkte
AI
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba+2.0pt69%
- Moonshot-9.5pt14%
- Z.ai-2.3pt6%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 75.086,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 61.476,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.3pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+1.9pt15.5%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,8 Mio. €
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+2.5pt85.4%
- Moonshot-0.3pt9.7%
- Z.ai-3.4pt1.9%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%98%
- Above 2.55%+18.0pt94%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 61.059,8 €
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+4.0pt96%
- Above 4.5%+22.0pt43%
- Above 5.6%+2.0pt13%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Best AI this week
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will any of DeepMind's formal conjectures be resolved before 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 99% (Stand: 17. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will any of DeepMind's formal conjectures be resolved before 2027? entschieden?
- Will any of DeepMind's formal conjectures be resolved before 2027? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will any of DeepMind's formal conjectures be resolved before 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Market will be resolved to Yes if at least one of the open problems from DeepMind's formal-conjectures gets decided before 2027.