Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 80%
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Aktualisiert vor 16 Minuten
20. Jan. 26, 22:37 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegeln
Martin Kleppmann (author of Designing Data-Intensive Applications) argues that AI will bring formal verification into the software engineering mainstream.
- His thesis: LLMs are getting good at writing proof scripts, which could dramatically reduce the cost of formal verification—historically prohibitive (the seL4 microkernel required 20 person-years and 200,000 lines of Isabelle for 8,700 lines of C).
- Key formal verification languages include Lean, Coq/Rocq, Isabelle, Agda, F*, and Dafny.
- Currently, these are niche tools used primarily in academia and specialized industrial applications (cryptographic protocol stacks, verified compilers, microkernels).
- This market tests whether AI-driven improvements will translate to widespread adoption within ~5 years.
- Resolution Criteria:
Offene Märkte
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
- $74,250 or above99%
+77 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,4 Mio. €
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- 180-199+20.0pt54.9%
- 200-219-6.0pt36.3%
- 220-239-7.5pt6.9%
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KALSHIBTC price on Sep 18, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $73,500 or above+18.0pt98%
- $73,000 or above+13.0pt98%
+47 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes91.6%
- No8.4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 244.610,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 243.290,4 €
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- Minneapolis+68.0pt99%
- Miami+22.0pt99%
- Houston+49.0pt99%
+19 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 236.345,2 €
KALSHINasdaq-100 price on Sep 17, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- 29,220 or above99%
- 28,810 or above98%
- 28,860 or above98%
+97 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 206.116 €
- 24h-Volumen
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 80% (Stand: 17. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031? entschieden?
- Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031? soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Martin Kleppmann (author of Designing Data-Intensive Applications) argues that AI will bring formal verification into the software engineering mainstream.