Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 74.2%
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Veraltet2. Okt. 26, 20:35 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- Any country that has formally joined the Abraham Accords (by signing the Abraham Accords Declaration or a bilateral normalization agreement under its framework) officially announces it is suspending or terminating participation in the Accords, or officially abrogates/suspends the relevant Israel normalization agreement.
- Evidence must be an official government statement or legal act, or confirmation by a major wire service (Reuters, AP, AFP) citing government officials.
- Clarifications: Mere ambassador recalls, critical statements, trade freezes, or flight suspensions without an explicit suspension/termination/withdrawal do not count.
- If wording is ambiguous, resolution requires explicit language such as “suspend,” “terminate,” or “withdraw.” New countries that join before EOY 2026 are in scope; their withdrawal before the deadline counts.
- The Abraham Accords comprise a general declaration plus bilateral normalization deals between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain (Sept 2020), Morocco (Dec 2020), and a Sudan signature of the Accords Declaration (Jan 2021), though Sudan’s full bilateral normalization has lagged amid instability.
