Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 57%
Prognostiker
12
Fragetyp
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Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 24 Minuten
7. Jan. 25, 00:27 UTC1. Jan. 45, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Al take 25% of human jobs before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill Al take 25% of human jobs before 2040?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will Al take 25% of human jobs?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will Al take 90% of human jobs?
Manifold MarketsWould Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
Manifold MarketsMedicaid requires employment (work requirement) in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution Criteria:
- The question will resolve to YES if at least one of the following occurs:
- The broader unemployment rate (U-6) reaches 50% or higher
- The labor force participation rate drops by 50% or more from its 2024 baseline of 62.5%.
- In this context the LFPR should fall to 31.3% or lower.
- This question is concerned with lost jobs and not the number of hours worked per week.
