Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet28. Jan. 24, 03:03 UTC1. Jan. 41, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2050?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Start counting from market creation (Jan 27,2024).
- Including tests.
- Only count deaths directly related to the explosion within 10 days of the explosion.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 581.272,5 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 55,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 96.847,5 €
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- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 83% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040? entschieden?
- Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040? soll am 1. Januar 2041 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Start counting from market creation (Jan 27,2024).