Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 12:06 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 64.7%
Prognostiker
21
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet10. März 25, 13:25 UTC31. Dez. 30, 21:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon be used in a war by the end of this decade?
Manifold MarketsA nuclear weapon is used in any conflict before January 1, 2029
Manifold MarketsNuclear weapon used offensively before 2100?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegeln
This market will resolve to YES, If any nuclear weapon is used before or in 2030.
- This includes weapons not used in war.
- Such as in a test.
- This includes smaller yield weapons, that are not necessarily as bombastic as an intercontinental ballistic missiles, (what's important is the payload)
- This DOES NOT include nuclear powered weapons, such as air-craft carriers or submarines (as they don't even fall under my definition of a weapon, and are considered weapon platforms)