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Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet12. Dez. 22, 15:27 UTC1. Jan. 40, 05:00 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES if one country attacks another country with a nuclear weapon for reasons that are clearly a part of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- Resolves NO if the conflict is resolved without any such detonations.
- A "resolved" confict means that we reach a state of affairs where it doesn't seem likely that one country will use force against another any time in the near future.
- They don't have to actually be friendly with each other, but there do need to be no threatening troop movements or nonviolent attacks such as government-sponsored hacks or aggressive economic sanctions.
- A nuclear test meant to intimidate an opposing country doesn't count.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 470.753,1 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.050,2 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the Russia-Ukraine war??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 94% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the Russia-Ukraine war? entschieden?
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the Russia-Ukraine war? soll am 1. Januar 2040 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the Russia-Ukraine war? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if one country attacks another country with a nuclear weapon for reasons that are clearly a part of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.