Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 80.6%
Prognostiker
29
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet18. Sept. 23, 23:50 UTC1. Jan. 30, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a nuclear weapon be used in a war by the end of this decade?
Manifold MarketsWill any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
Manifold MarketsIran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
"non-test nuclear weapon" includes any delivery mechanism or actor.
- Accidental detonations count.
- Tactical nuclear weapons count.
- "detonate" means there is a nuclear explosion.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 581.272,5 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 55,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 96.847,5 €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 81% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030? entschieden?
- Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: "non-test nuclear weapon" includes any delivery mechanism or actor.