Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.
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Veraltet8. Okt. 24, 09:00 UTC1. Jan. 30, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a nuclear weapon be used in a war by the end of this decade?
Manifold MarketsWill any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by which date?
PolymarketWill the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Conditional Market based on this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20482/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/
- This question will resolve as Yes if the Iranian Government credibly states that it has a nuclear weapon or has tested a nuclear weapon at any time between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2030, according to credible media reports.
- For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.
- For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).
- The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) will be sufficient to resolve this question as Yes.
- Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as Yes.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 75% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected. entschieden?
- Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected. soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected. abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Conditional Market based on this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20482/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/