Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 65.4%
Prognostiker
52
Fragetyp
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet27. Juli 23, 17:53 UTC1. Jan. 00, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2045?
Manifold MarketsReal-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).
Manifold MarketsReal-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).
Manifold MarketsWill humans have a complete map of the human brain by EOY 2029?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Uploading: scanning the structure of a brain in sufficient resolution and using it as input to a simulation which results in consciousness similar to the original brain.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/JonathanRay/conditional-on-uploading-tech-will)
Offene Märkte
Science
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 210.956,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 110.461,9 €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 21.315,2 €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5178,9 €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a human brain be uploaded by 2100??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 65% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a human brain be uploaded by 2100? entschieden?
- Will a human brain be uploaded by 2100? soll am 1. Januar 2100 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a human brain be uploaded by 2100? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Uploading: scanning the structure of a brain in sufficient resolution and using it as input to a simulation which results in consciousness similar to the original brain.