Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 88.6%
Prognostiker
35
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Stunden
Veraltet20. Aug. 22, 15:03 UTC21. Aug. 70, 21:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?
Manifold MarketsWill someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
Manifold MarketsWill anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?
Manifold MarketsExtinct mammoth hybrids to be born alive by the end of 2027?
FutuurWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Time spent in cryostasis doesn't count
- Mind uploading doesn't count -- the cat needs to be wetware running on DNA, proteins, lipids, etc. Close date updated to 2170-08-21 5:59 pm
Offene Märkte
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 226.325,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 125.213,7 €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28,6 Mio. €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 108.303,7 €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5183 €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a cat born before 2020 live to be ≥150 years old??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 89% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a cat born before 2020 live to be ≥150 years old? entschieden?
- Will a cat born before 2020 live to be ≥150 years old? soll am 21. August 2170 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a cat born before 2020 live to be ≥150 years old? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Time spent in cryostasis doesn't count