KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlichVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertMittelwert des gewählten Orderbuchs
Before 2040 · —
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Gespeicherter Preis
Before 2040 59%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Before 2040 59%Marktqualitat
62 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
1058,1 €
Open Interest
24.564,6 $
Mittleres Open InterestGeld / Brief
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Before 2040Spread
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Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 44 Minuten
14. Aug. 25, 20:45 UTC1. Jan. 30, 04:59 UTC
Chart und Änderungen zeigen gespeicherte historische Wahrscheinlichkeiten, nicht das gewählte aktuelle Orderbuch.
Trends
Gewählte Zeile: Orderbuch-Mittelwert. Andere Zeilen: gespeicherte, ggf. normalisierte Referenzwerte; 24h-Änderungen basieren auf gespeicherter Historie.
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Kalshi
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Vorzeitige Schließung:
- Ja
- Abrechnungsfrist:
- 30m (unverbindliche Angabe)
Markttiefe · Before 2040
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the first quantum computer virus be identified by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a humanoid robot be able to unbox a 5,000+ piece new Lego set, read the manual, and assemble the entire model?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:Physical Review XQuantum Science and TechnologyNature PhysicsScience AdvancesProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesPhysical Review ANature Communicationsthe National Institute of Standards and Technology official publicationsIBM Research peer-reviewed publicationsGoogle Quantum AI peer-reviewed publicationsQuantinuum peer-reviewed publicationsIonQ peer-reviewed publicationsMIT Technology ReviewIEEE Transactions on Quantum EngineeringQuantum Computing ReportScience MagazineReutersAssociated PressBloomberg NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe New York TimesNatureSciencePhysical Review Letters
Regeln für jedes Ergebnis
- Before 2040
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2035
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2030
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2027
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
