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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Technik
  3. When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

TechnikOne-OffWissenschaft6Mon
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Before 2027
Before 2027 7%
Führend unter 4 Optionen
Marktqualitat

24 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

0 €

Liquidität

150,5 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

6.2% / 6.8%

Spread

9.7%

Breiter Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 2 Minuten

14. Aug. 25, 20:451. Jan. 27, 4:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Before 20277%

Regeln

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

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In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$62,682.54+2.38%EthereumETH$1,651.16+1.73%SolanaSOL$65.16+1.80%DogecoinDOGE$0.0851+1.95%BNBBNB$595.34+1.77%XRPXRP$1.12+0.49%

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Regeln

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.