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In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegeln
The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.
- Demonstrating its factorisation with a general‑purpose quantum computer—one capable of running Shor’s algorithm (or an equivalent quantum‑factoring routine) at scale—would effectively break today’s RSA‑based public‑key cryptography.
- Resolution Criteria
- Evidence required – A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal must show that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA‑2048 challenge number.
- Classical assistance – Limited classical pre‑ or post‑processing (e.g., compiling the circuit, verifying the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization step must be done by quantum hardware.
- Timing - The peer-reviewed paper’s publication date occurs before Jan 1, 2030 for the market to resolve YES.
Offene Märkte
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $73,750 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
+77 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
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KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
- $68,500 or above98%
+47 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 319.926 €
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KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 10, 2026?
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 90% (Stand: 10. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030? entschieden?
- Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.