In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?
0.2 Pkt. (24h)One-OffWissenschaftKryptoManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2025-2034 30.7%+0.2ptFührend unter 6 Optionen
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Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten
23. März 25, 14:56 UTC1. Jan. 01, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegeln
The RSA-2048 challenge number is a 617-digit semiprime published by RSA Laboratories.
- Factoring it with a general-purpose quantum computer (i.e., one that runs Shor’s algorithm at scale) would mark the end of today’s form of public-key cryptography.
- Resolution criteria
- Evidence required – A peer-reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal showing that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA-2048 challenge number.
- Quantum-computer build timing – The bracket corresponding to the year in which the demonstration is published resolves "YES" and the market closes immediately.
- Example: if the paper is dated 2035, the 2035-2039 bracket resolves "YES" and all others resolve "NO" based on the publication date.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2025-2034 mit 31% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? entschieden?
- In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? soll am 1. Januar 2101 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The RSA-2048 challenge number is a 617-digit semiprime published by RSA Laboratories.