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Veraltet12. Nov. 24, 04:19 UTC2. Jan. 45, 04:59 UTC
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Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWill a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.
- Demonstrating its factorisation with a general‑purpose quantum computer—one capable of running Shor’s algorithm (or an equivalent quantum‑factoring routine) at scale—would effectively break today’s RSA‑based public‑key cryptography.
- Resolution Criteria
- Evidence required – A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal must show that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA‑2048 challenge number.
- Classical assistance – Limited classical pre‑ or post‑processing (e.g., compiling the circuit, verifying the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization step must be done by quantum hardware.
- Timing - The peer-reviewed paper’s publication date occurs before Jan 1, 2045 for the market to resolve YES.
Offene Märkte
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 802.561,8 €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 736.478,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 585.562,7 €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 61% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045? entschieden?
- Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045? soll am 2. Januar 2045 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.