Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
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Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 55.3%
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22
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Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet1. Nov. 24, 15:39 UTC1. Jan. 40, 04:59 UTC
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Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
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Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWhich arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.
- Demonstrating its factorisation with a general‑purpose quantum computer—one capable of running Shor’s algorithm (or an equivalent quantum‑factoring routine) at scale—would effectively break today’s RSA‑based public‑key cryptography.
- Resolution Criteria
- Evidence required – A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal must show that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA‑2048 challenge number.
- Classical assistance – Limited classical pre‑ or post‑processing (e.g., compiling the circuit, verifying the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization step must be done by quantum hardware.
- Timing - The peer-reviewed paper’s publication date occurs before Jan 1, 2040 for the market to resolve YES.
Offene Märkte
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
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KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 55% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040? entschieden?
- Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040? soll am 1. Januar 2040 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.