Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3?
GeopolitikManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseThird World War 51%
Prognostiker
20
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
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Aktualisiert vor 18 Stunden
Veraltet9. Apr. 24, 13:44 UTC1. Jan. 01, 04:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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PolymarketRegeln
Will the United States break out into a civil war first? Or will a the named outcome break out first?
- Resolves to whichever is considered to happen first, according to things like news outlets, Wikipedia, other bets, etc. For example, if https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-the-un resolves to Yes first, I would most likely resolve this to Yes for Civil War 2:
- "Civil War" means any large scale military action taken by some part of the country against some other part of the country.
- This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian.
- Actual violence must be involved, not just threats. "Large scale" means that it takes place in more than one city and each side has the support of a significant fraction of the country.
Offene Märkte
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Third World War mit 51% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3? entschieden?
- Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3? soll am 1. Januar 2101 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Will the United States break out into a civil war first? Or will a the named outcome break out first?