Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseInsurgencies in Iran 100%Führend unter 10 Optionen
Prognostiker
83
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet25. Feb. 26, 16:47 UTC31. Jan. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Venezuela enter a new hot war with anyone by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsHot war between the US and China by the end of 2026?
FutuurUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
Any number of these conflicts might resolve Yes this year, once they enter the Minor Wars or Major Wars categories on Wikipedia's List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts
- I will be fairly liberal with what counts as a conflict.
- Unlike previous versions of this market, we are now using article titles for existing civil conflicts, and are only using country pairings for conflicts not already on the page.
- If a new conflict article or country pairing gets folded into an existing article, the question will only resolve Yes if the encompassing article is both over the threshold AND the beligerents from the country pairing fought in the current year.
- This means that changes in Wiki policy or recategorization of past articles should not count by themselves for this market.