Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJul-Dec 2026 43.7%-7.1ptFührend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
16
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
-8.6 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Minuten
25. Sept. 25, 22:16 UTC25. Sept. 26, 22:14 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will OpenAI release a new model before October?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release a model called GPT-5o in 2026?
Manifold MarketsTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiNext Claude Opus released on?
PolymarketRegeln
Update 2025-09-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Release can be to a limited group (e.g., a closed beta), not only a public launch.
- Must be a real, new model by SSI — not a white‑labeled/rebranded external LLM.
- Requires third‑party confirmation of the model’s existence and that it is new.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 125.416,7 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,9 Mio. €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 156.321,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 26.110,1 €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will SSI release their first model??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Jul-Dec 2026 mit 44% (Stand: 21. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will SSI release their first model? entschieden?
- When will SSI release their first model? soll am 25. September 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will SSI release their first model? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Update 2025-09-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Release can be to a limited group (e.g., a closed beta), not only a public launch.