Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 86.1%
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Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten
8. Sept. 26, 22:26 UTC30. Sept. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?
PolymarketWeights in largest open-weight AI model before October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SSI release their first model?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release a model called GPT-5o in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Any model counts.
- Image model, TTS model, a main-line GPT model, any model.
- Obviously, if they release weights with randomly initialized values that won't count but besides that, anything goes.
- Could be an open-weights model or a proprietary model or updates to model series (like GPT-6.1)
- The ChatGPT Image 2.5 model released today will not count
Offene Märkte
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 125.416,7 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,9 Mio. €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 156.321,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 26.110,1 €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will OpenAI release a new model before October??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 86% (Stand: 21. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will OpenAI release a new model before October? entschieden?
- Will OpenAI release a new model before October? soll am 30. September 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will OpenAI release a new model before October? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Any model counts.