Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2026 66.8%-2.9ptFührend unter 6 Optionen
Prognostiker
33
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+11.3 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
13. Apr. 25, 13:37 UTC1. Jan. 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence?
Manifold MarketsWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?
PolymarketWill Apple release a new product line before 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill Anduril release a product or service with a name that references Smash Bros by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Safe Superintelligence has famously promised not to release any products until it has achieved its namesake.
- When will SSI launch its first product?
- For the purpose of this market, "product" means a paid product based on an AI foundation model, e.g. a chatbot, model API, or "wrapper app".
- This is meant to exclude minor, miscellaneous sources of revenue.
- Maybe this will create edge cases but I don't want to commit to resolving Yes the first year SSI has revenue >$0.
- Update 2025-04-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Product Scope Update:
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-6.5pt85%
- December 15,-5.5pt85%
- November 30,-10.5pt82%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 55.558,8 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt68%
- ChatGPT+0.8pt16.5%
- Grok+1.0pt6.8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,4 Mio. €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt92%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-9.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-9.0pt83%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2026+4.8pt98%
- 1.5T+-0.9pt2%
- <500B-0.2pt0%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude91.6%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt1.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 71.641,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 34.809,1 €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$900B+10.4pt100%
- ↑$1.0T-4.5pt82%
- ↑$1.25T-10.5pt52%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- OpenAI IPO by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Most popular AI this week
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 7–13
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2026 mit 67% (Stand: 13. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product? entschieden?
- When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Safe Superintelligence has famously promised not to release any products until it has achieved its namesake.