Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNot before 2027 97%Führend unter 14 Optionen
Prognostiker
41
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet16. Okt. 23, 07:49 UTC31. Dez. 26, 13:29 UTC
Trends
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?
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KalshiRegeln
other = before 2024
- Will look at the stat page.
- If it reads 100k, resolves to the relevant bucket.
- I don't plan on doing detective work if it's manipulated.
- Having said that, if a considerable amount of traffic is fraudulent (e.g., 20%) I will possibly delay resolution to make necessary adjustments for blatant-bulk-manipulation.
- I'm not excluding alts, 10 person bot farms, whatever
