When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality?
KIOne-Off3MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseAfter 2035 68.7%Führend unter 8 Optionen
Prognostiker
8
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet24. Feb. 25, 00:58 UTC1. Jan. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will there be any Chinese Fable-level models by March 2027, defined as a model with an ECI score of 160 or higher?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketNext Claude Opus released by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRegeln
Inspired by this Twitter/X thread, but others have expressed similar concerns.
- "WMD" is here defined as a nuclear, radiological, chemical, or biological weapon.
- The attack does not need to be successful, just result in at least one death (e.g. the aspiring terrorist accidentally gasses themselves.)
- "Unrestricted" is here defined as any LLM that will help with planning a WMD attack, whether because it was not designed to refuse such a request, was verbally persuaded/jailbroken to do so, was fine-tuned by someone to do so, etc. I'll try to be generous regarding whether access to the LLM "resulted in" the attack.
- Unless it's extremely clear that the perpetrator(s) could have accomplished it on their own (e.g. a professional chemist using an LLM to speed up ordering glassware for their chemical weapons project), any use of an LLM will resolve YES.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 125.416,7 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,9 Mio. €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 156.321,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 26.110,1 €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality??
- Manifold Markets bewertet After 2035 mit 69% (Stand: 21. September 2026).
- Wann wird When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality? entschieden?
- When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Inspired by this Twitter/X thread, but others have expressed similar concerns.