What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's?
GeopolitikOne-OffMiddle EastRussia / Ukraine3MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 71.2%
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Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet29. Aug. 26, 08:29 UTC30. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
PolymarketUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?
PolymarketWhat will be included in the Iran-US peace deal?
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsRussia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market resolves to YES if a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is signed by both belligerents and successfully remains in effect for 180 consecutive calendar days before a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the conflict involving Iran achieves the same.
- This market resolves to NO if a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the conflict involving Iran is signed by the required belligerents and successfully remains in effect for 180 consecutive calendar days before a formal, comprehensive peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine achieves the same.
- Signatory & Conflict Scope
- Russia–Ukraine: Must be signed by the executive leadership or authorized plenipotentiaries of both Russia and Ukraine.
- Iran Conflict: Must be signed by the executive leadership or authorized plenipotentiaries of Iran AND either (a) the United States, (b) Israel, or (c) both.
- Signing with one state satisfies the condition provided all hostilities between Iran and that signatory state formally terminate under the treaty terms.
Offene Märkte
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 71% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's? entschieden?
- What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's? soll am 30. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market resolves to YES if a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is signed by both belligerents and successfully remains in effect for 180 consecutive calendar days before a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the conflict involving Iran achieves the same.