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OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by which date?
PolymarketWill OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?
KalshiAny American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google acquire or take a controlling stake in a broker-dealer by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsAt the end of 2027 will both OpenAI and Anthropic be public companies?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?
PolymarketRegeln
Full question: Will a new version of the "MonitorBench" or a successor to the Guan et al.
- (2025) benchmark be adopted by at least two major AI labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind) to report "monitor-aware evasion" scores by December 31, 2027?
- As large language models (LLMs) transition towards reasoning-heavy architectures using Chain-of-Thought (CoT) (e.g., OpenAI o1, o3), the ability to monitor these hidden thoughts for safety and alignment has become a critical area of research.
- In early 2025, researchers from OpenAI and academic institutions, notably Guan et al.
- (2025), published foundational work on "monitorability," which measures how easily a monitoring system can detect prohibited content within a model's CoT [s2r3t4].
- However, subsequent research, such as the MonitorBench paper (Wang et al., 2026), has argued that these early benchmarks are "unrealistically easy" [a1b2c3].