There will be a change to the permanent members of the UN Security council before 2040
GeopolitikOne-OffRussland / Ukraine13J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 51.2%
Ja 51.2%Prognostiker
16
Fragetyp
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Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet30. Dez. 22, 19:25 UTC1. Jan. 40, 19:00 UTC
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what counts: 1. new permanent member 2. member removed 3. expansion / shrinking of membership 4. removal of the veto power 5. dissolution of the UN
- Update 2024-13-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Russia breaks apart, the market will follow the part which retains:
- Moscow/the capital
- Control of the military
- The cultural core
- If there is a division at such a high level that it's not clear which part represents Russia, the market may be voided.
