Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 90.5%
Prognostiker
16
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet10. Dez. 23, 22:10 UTC2. Jan. 32, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Leading dark matter explanation by January 2045
Manifold MarketsWill the nature of dark matter be known by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Dark Matter still be real at the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRegeln
Some studies have suggested a link between dark matter and large igneous provinces in the geologic record (See, for instance: Rampino, 2015).
- This market resolves to YES if two or more studies are published in either Science or the Nature family of journals by Jan. 1, 2032 that support the hypothesis that large igneous provinces are triggered by dark matter.
- The link between dark matter and volcanism must be one of the core parts of the article.
- (that is, it doesn't count if the hypothesis is just mentioned off-hand).
Offene Märkte
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 226.325,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 125.213,7 €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28,6 Mio. €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 108.303,7 €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5183 €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Is volcanism caused by dark matter??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 91% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Is volcanism caused by dark matter? entschieden?
- Is volcanism caused by dark matter? soll am 2. Januar 2032 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Is volcanism caused by dark matter? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Some studies have suggested a link between dark matter and large igneous provinces in the geologic record (See, for instance: Rampino, 2015).