KalshiGeschlossenVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlichVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertVom Anbieter Markt für Markt abgerechnet
Entschieden: 31.10.2026, 17:51
Dieses Ereignis hat keinen einzelnen Gewinner. Der Anbieter hat jeden Markt einzeln abgerechnet; jeder Markt zeigt sein eigenes Ergebnis.
Warnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 31.10.2026, 13:47 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
Magnitude of at least 5.21%
Magnitude of at least 5.41%
Magnitude of at least 5.816%
Magnitude of at least 6.012%
Magnitude of at least 6.212%
Magnitude of at least 5.61%
Magnitude of at least 6.47%
Magnitude of at least 7.012%
Magnitude of at least 6.63%
Magnitude of at least 6.83%
Magnitude of at least 7.0Verloren
Magnitude of at least 6.4Verloren
Magnitude of at least 5.2Verloren
Magnitude of at least 5.4Verloren
Magnitude of at least 5.8Verloren
Magnitude of at least 6.0Verloren
Magnitude of at least 6.2Verloren
Magnitude of at least 5.6Verloren
Magnitude of at least 6.6Verloren
Magnitude of at least 6.8Verloren
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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PolymarketWhat will the biggest earthquake be on October 31, 2026?
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KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiDid COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Die genaue Regel für dieses Ergebnis ist nicht verfügbar.
Abwicklung über:the United States Geological Survey
- The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.
Regeln für jedes Ergebnis
- Magnitude of at least 7.0
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 30, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 7.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.4
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 30, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.2
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 30, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.4
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 30, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.8
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 30, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.0
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 30, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.2
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 30, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.6
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 30, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.6
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 30, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.8
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 30, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.