Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 93.7%
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 22 Stunden
Veraltet25. März 26, 18:08 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the AI bubble pop by X date?
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PolymarketRegeln
This market will resolve to the percentage representing the opinion of the creator at the end of 2027 concerning whether Sora being shutdown was due to the AI bubble beginning to pop, or that it sparked a pop in the AI bubble.
- At the time of market creation, I would resolve to somewhere between 1 and 3%, representing my opinion that the AI bubble is not yet popped, that there may not even be an AI bubble to pop, and that Sora being shut down was likely due to compute and electricity bottlenecks while other research and profitable models were pursued.
- Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For resolution, Sora's shutdown must be causally linked to the AI bubble popping — either as a cause or as an effect of the bubble beginning to pop.
- It is not sufficient for the shutdown to merely coincide with or occur during an already-unfolding bubble pop.
