Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 79.4%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 59 Minuten
Verzogert12. Feb. 26, 20:12 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the AI bubble pop by X date?
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PolymarketWill the AI bubble burst by which date?
FutuurRegeln
Resolves YES if, before December 31, 2027, at least three major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, New York Times) explicitly describe a sustained downturn in AI investment, valuations, or AI-related public stocks as an “AI bubble burst,” “AI crash,” or equivalent term primarily attributed to AI sector dynamics.
- General economic downturns not primarily attributed to AI do not count.
- Sustained downturn = A decline of at least 30% from a prior peak sustained for at least 3 consecutive months, in at least three major publicly traded companies widely recognized as primary beneficiaries of the AI boom OR a documented reduction in AI venture funding and valuations covering at least two consecutive quarters.
- Examples of public AI companies include, but are not limited to: NVDA, AMD, TSMC
- Update 2026-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the "sustained downturn" requirement:
- 3 AI stocks must decline at least 30% from prior peak for 3 consecutive months, OR
