Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 75%
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Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet12. Feb. 26, 20:12 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Is Sora's shutdown the start of an AI bubble pop by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the AI bubble pop by X date?
Manifold MarketsWill we be called the AI bubble ? 2028
Manifold MarketsAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES if, before December 31, 2027, at least three major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, New York Times) explicitly describe a sustained downturn in AI investment, valuations, or AI-related public stocks as an “AI bubble burst,” “AI crash,” or equivalent term primarily attributed to AI sector dynamics.
- General economic downturns not primarily attributed to AI do not count.
- Sustained downturn = A decline of at least 30% from a prior peak sustained for at least 3 consecutive months, in at least three major publicly traded companies widely recognized as primary beneficiaries of the AI boom OR a documented reduction in AI venture funding and valuations covering at least two consecutive quarters.
- Examples of public AI companies include, but are not limited to: NVDA, AMD, TSMC
- Update 2026-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the "sustained downturn" requirement:
- 3 AI stocks must decline at least 30% from prior peak for 3 consecutive months, OR
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 241.307,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 128.006,7 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 349.424,1 €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the AI bubble pop before 2028??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 75% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the AI bubble pop before 2028? entschieden?
- Will the AI bubble pop before 2028? soll am 31. Dezember 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the AI bubble pop before 2028? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if, before December 31, 2027, at least three major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, New York Times) explicitly describe a sustained downturn in AI investment, valuations, or AI-related public stocks as an “AI bubble burst,” “AI crash,” or equivalent term primarily attributed to AI sector dynamics.