Aktuelle Community-Prognose
By 12-31-2025 0%Führend unter 10 Optionen
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Fragetyp
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Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 20 Stunden
Veraltet26. Okt. 25, 11:3831. Dez. 27, 10:29
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
By 9-30-20265%
Plattformen vergleichen· By 3-31-2028
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBeste insgesamt72% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | Mittel | 16% | — | 6,2 € | 14.513,8 € | vor 22 Minuten | Öffnen → |
| Manifold MarketsDiese Seite | — | 47% | — | — | — | vor 20 Stunden |
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
AI bubble burst by which date?
5Mon
16%
-0.1%0%
+0.1%0%
60 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadMittlere Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen2,6 Mio. €
24h-Volumen6,2 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
Will the AI bubble pop by X date?
- For the purpose of resolving this market, I will define the AI bubble popping as a reduction in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) closing price of 35% or more within a period of 10 consecutive trading days.
- More formally, let pₜ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t, and let pₜ₊ₛ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t + s, such that 0 < s ≤ 10.
- A market will resolve to Yes if
- (pₜ - pₜ₊ₛ) / pₜ ≥ .35
- is satisfied by the stated date.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$709. Juli4T Daten25. Juli
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Will the AI bubble pop by X date?
- For the purpose of resolving this market, I will define the AI bubble popping as a reduction in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) closing price of 35% or more within a period of 10 consecutive trading days.
- More formally, let pₜ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t, and let pₜ₊ₛ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t + s, such that 0 < s ≤ 10.
- A market will resolve to Yes if
- (pₜ - pₜ₊ₛ) / pₜ ≥ .35
- is satisfied by the stated date.