Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?
GeopolitikOne-OffKIGesundheit & Medizin10JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 92.1%
Prognostiker
12
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet16. Aug. 26, 04:05 UTC31. Dez. 36, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, for any calendar year from 2029 through 2034 (inclusive), official CDC mortality statistics show that the majority (greater than 50%) of all deaths in the United States (excluding deaths directly resulting from war or combat) are classified under "external causes of morbidity and mortality" rather than "natural causes" (diseases and clinical syndromes).
- The market will reference the final mortality data from the CDC WONDER database or the official National Vital Statistics Reports (NVSR).
- Specifically, the YES threshold is met if:
- The total annual number of deaths categorized under ICD-10 Chapter XX ("External causes of morbidity and mortality" codes V01–Y89) is greater than the total annual number of deaths categorized under ICD-10 Chapters I through XVIII (codes A00–R99, which encompass infectious diseases, cancers, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory illness, diabetes, dementia, and other physical/mental diseases).
- Deaths directly from war/combat (e.g., ICD-10 codes Y36, U01.1, U02) will be subtracted from both totals before comparison.