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If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]
GeopolitikOne-OffChina
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 55%
Prognostiker
48
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet24. Feb. 24, 00:52 UTC1. Jan. 00, 00:57 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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PolymarketRegeln
WARNING: Unlike most conditional markets, I will not necessarily cancel this market when the deadline hits.
- If at the end of the century China has substantially the same policy toward Taiwan (i.e. that annexation would be in principle good), I will assume that the chinese leadership assessed their prospects, decided such an invasion would fail, and chose not to go through with it.
- I will therefore resolve NO.
- Here's a similar market without that clause: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-they-s.
- I created this market when my search didn't turn up Isaac's, but when I noticed the difference in approaches, decided to leave this one up as an experiment.
- Feel free to fill my limit order over there.
Offene Märkte
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+5 weitere Ergebnisse
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- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
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- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
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- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.050,2 €
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- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
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- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 55% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias] entschieden?
- If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias] soll am 1. Januar 2100 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias] abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: WARNING: Unlike most conditional markets, I will not necessarily cancel this market when the deadline hits.