If a Nobel Prize for Economics is awarded to work on prediction markets before 2040, will the recipient be Robin Hanson?
One-OffWissenschaftSociety & Culture13JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 62.7%
Prognostiker
8
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet25. Apr. 26, 11:46 UTC31. Dez. 39, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Robin Hanson win the Nobel Prize for Economics before his death?
Manifold MarketsRobin Hanson wins a Nobel Prize in Economics?
Manifold MarketsWill Robin Hanson receive the Nobel Prize in Economics?
Manifold MarketsNobel Prize in Economics 2026
KalshiWill Pauline Hanson wear a burqa again in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiRegeln
Auflösungskriterien sind für diesen Markt noch nicht verfügbar. Dieser Abschnitt wird nach den nächsten Aktualisierungen gefüllt, sobald die Quellregeln gespeichert sind.
Offene Märkte
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 210.956,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 110.461,9 €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 21.315,2 €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5178,9 €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für If a Nobel Prize for Economics is awarded to work on prediction markets before 2040, will the recipient be Robin Hanson??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 63% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird If a Nobel Prize for Economics is awarded to work on prediction markets before 2040, will the recipient be Robin Hanson? entschieden?
- If a Nobel Prize for Economics is awarded to work on prediction markets before 2040, will the recipient be Robin Hanson? soll am 31. Dezember 2039 entschieden werden.