Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 08:38 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseAnthropic 80%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet21. Apr. 25, 00:36 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will "Which side of the AI safety community are you in?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsAI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027
Manifold MarketsWill "The Spectre haunting the "AI Safety" Community" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurRegeln
Will not bet on this market.
- Will resolve based on general sentiment, as reflected in highly upvoted LW posts, major articles, etc. For calibration, my current read of the general sentiment of the AI safety community is that the median person currently trusts Anthropic (and maybe somewhat Deepmind).
