Will "Which side of the AI safety community are you in?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
One-OffKI3Mon
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 88.9%
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Veraltet23. Okt. 25, 08:47 UTC1. Feb. 27, 00:00 UTC
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Frontier labs ~trusted by the AI safety community at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill "The Spectre haunting the "AI Safety" Community" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsAI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027
Manifold MarketsWill "The Invisible Side of AI Governance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurRegeln
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Which side of the AI safety community are you in? is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
