Conditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons?
GeopolitikOne-OffRussland / Ukraine2Mon
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 86.4%
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Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert21. Dez. 22, 23:21 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a canal be created in the Strait of Hormuz using nuclear weapons?
Manifold MarketsWill any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsWill any Nuclear weapons be used by the US till 2027?
Manifold MarketsAt least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2026?
Manifold MarketsU.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
PolymarketRussia to control Crimea through the end of 2026?
FutuurRegeln
This market resolves:
- YES - if Ukrainian army has de-facto control over at least 50% of Crimea territory, and Russia had NOT used tactical nor strategic nuclear weapons against Ukraine before that day, and not uses them for at least 4 weeks after that day.
- NO - if Ukrainian army has de-facto control over at least 50% of Crimea territory, and Russia had used tactical or strategic nuclear weapons against Ukraine before that day or within 4 weeks after that day.
- N/A - If the war ends before Crimea is liberated by Ukranian forces, including the case where Crimea is returned to Ukraine as part of a peace deal.
- The intention to estimate whether Russia is likely to use nukes to prevent loosing Crimea.
- Close date updated to 2024-01-01 3:59 am