Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2060 75%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
35
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet9. Dez. 23, 10:29 UTC1. Jan. 60, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Malaria be eradicated in humans before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy 2050, will development of biotechnology and genetic engineering render term "transgender" useless?
Manifold MarketsWill there be fresh fruit/vegetables advertised+verified as being sold "microplastics-free" in any supermarket by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?
Manifold MarketsUS Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women)
PolymarketWill Joe Biden die this year?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Each date resolves YES if Malaria has been declared eradicated by the WHO (or an equivalent declaration by an appropriate organization of similar status if N/A) before Jan 1st of that year.
- With regards to ambiguity of resolution my intent with this market is: "the time at which there has been a period of no recent Malaria deaths and a reasonable expectation of no further deaths in future, as declared by an authoritative organisation" and I will seek the most objective way of defining that.
- The WHO's declaration of Smallpox eradication in 1980 would be analogous.
