Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose01.01.2030 80.5%Führend unter 9 Optionen
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7
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+11.6 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Minuten
10. Okt. 25, 11:001. Jan. 30, 23:59
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This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring
- This market resolves based on whether, at each specified date, all SOTA reasoning models use non-token-based (’neuralese’) reasoning.
- Neuralese Reasoning Definition
- A reasoning model uses "neuralese reasoning" if the architecture allows some activation to sequentially go through at least some part of the network an arbitrary number of times without at some point being projected from a continuous multidimensional activation into a discrete state (like token IDs).
- Specific Resolution Cases
- Counts as neuralese reasoning: Tokens are generated but there is also a residual connection that feeds back continuous activations into earlier layers
Offene Märkte
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- September 30-0.1pt99%
- October 31+0.6pt99%
- September 15+0.6pt98%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 457.439,8 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-4.0pt59.2%
- ChatGPT-1.3pt24.3%
- Grok+0.9pt7.8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 8,7 Mio. €
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+9.1pt100%
- November 30,+6.8pt100%
- December 31,+5.5pt100%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+27.7pt37%
- September 17+22.2pt23%
- September 24+22.1pt23%
+27 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-10.0pt76.5%
- ChatGPT+5.0pt16.7%
- Gemini+2.0pt2.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 149.225,9 €
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- AI capability growth this year?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 01.01.2030 mit 81% (Stand: 4. September 2026).
- Wann wird By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese? entschieden?
- By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring