KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 97%
Marktqualitat
≤49 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
3104,4 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
4.0% / 9.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Minuten
28. Juli 26, 19:51 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsOpen Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
PolymarketRegeln
If Anthropic officially announces signing of the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR databaseABCCNBCThe Wall Street JournalMSNBCThe InformationNBCThe Washington PostThe New York TimesAxiosReutersCNNthe Associated PressCBSPoliticoBloomberg News
- The announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company.
- CEO statements through official channels qualify.
- Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify.
- The announcement must occur after market issuance.
- Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.
Offene Märkte
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.2pt94%
- Yes-1.2pt6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 19,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 262.997,1 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-10.0pt69%
- December 15,-13.5pt65%
- November 30,-12.0pt49%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt91%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt88%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-3.0pt83%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028+9.0pt34%
- Before Oct 1, 2027+6.0pt27%
- Before Apr 1, 202717%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 7 Mio. €
KALSHIWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Before Jan 1, 202878%
- Before Jul 1, 202733%
- Before Jan 1, 20277%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 13.008,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 8088 €
POLYMARKETDiscord IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2027-16.1pt62.6%
- 8–11B+6.7pt10.1%
- 11–14B-0.1pt8.1%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will crypto market structure legislation become law?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
- When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Anthropic sign the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter??
- Kalshi bewertet No mit 97% (Stand: 20. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Anthropic sign the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter? entschieden?
- Will Anthropic sign the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Anthropic sign the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter? abgerechnet?
- Kalshi rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If Anthropic officially announces signing of the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.