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Aktualisiert vor 45 Minuten
Verzogert24. Okt. 26, 21:54 UTC25. Nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
When will Moonshot AI publish Kimi K3.1 Pro's full weights on Hugging Face? (promised "by Nov 4")
Manifold MarketsWill credible evidence show that OpenAI deliberately staged the July 2026 Hugging Face incident by January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsOpen vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 1, 2026
KalshiWill Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic sign the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter?
KalshiOpen vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 2, 2026
KalshiRegeln
Resolves YES if, by November 25, 2026, 23:59 UTC, Alibaba's Qwen team publishes downloadable model weights for any model officially named Qwen 4 (any size or tier, e.g. "Qwen4-27B", "Qwen4-Flash") on its official Hugging Face organisation, https://huggingface.co/Qwen.
- The weights must be public: anyone with a free Hugging Face account can download them, even if the repo asks you to accept a licence first.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- What doesn't count:
- API-only or chat-app-only releases (Qwen 4 Max on Alibaba Cloud / QwenCloud with no downloadable weights).
- Models named Qwen 3.x, even if Alibaba describes them as a "preview of the Qwen 4 architecture" (for example the Qwen3.8-Flash preview released on Aug 24, 2026).
