FutuurVerfügbarkeit prüfenVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 92%
Nein 92%Marktqualitat
33 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
1246,8 €
Niedrige LiquiditätTrader
10
Kommentare
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute
Trends
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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This market predicts whether the United States will enter a technical recession during calendar‑year 2026—that is, at least two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- A “Yes” resolution requires any back‑to‑back pair of quarters with negative growth in which both quarters fall within 2026.
- Negative growth means a value strictly below 0.0 percent in Table 1.1.1 of the corresponding BEA advance release, so that zero or positive growth in any quarter breaks a potential sequence.
- The primary settlement source is the BEA’s quarterly advance GDP result.
- If the release is temporarily inaccessible, the fallback is the identical advance figure carried in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)’s Real GDP series.
- If no qualifying two‑quarter sequence is present in any advance estimate covering Q1 2026 through Q4 2026, the market resolves “No.” Later BEA revisions, NBER recession declarations, or monthly indicators do not affect resolution.
