Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja 89%+1.0pt
Ja 89%+1.0ptMarktqualitat
33 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
16,6 €
Liquidität
819 €
Niedrige LiquiditätTrader
11
Kommentare
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will 2035 be the warmest year on record?
ForecastExWill 2027 be the warmest year on record?
ForecastExWill 2030 be the warmest year on record?
ForecastExWill 2030 be the warmest year on record?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be Denver's warmest year ever?
Manifold MarketsWhere will October 2026 rank among the warmest Octobers on record (Copernicus ERA5)?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This event predicts whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record based on global average surface temperature measurements.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be NASA’s Global Temperature Index (GISTEMP) annual data release for 2026.
- If NASA’s data shows that 2026 has the highest global average temperature on record at the time of release, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- If NASA ceases to publish this data or it is exceptionally unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on equivalent datasets from other major climate authorities, such as the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
- Resolution will reflect the substantive ranking of 2026’s temperature relative to prior years, not later data revisions.
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
2 Handelsplätze bepreisen diesen Markt derzeit. Die plattformübergreifende Referenzwahrscheinlichkeit von CoinRithm für CoinRithm-Referenz liegt bei 65%. Die Spanne zwischen den Plattformen beträgt rund 49 Prozentpunkte.
CoinRithm-Referenz 65% · 2 Plattformen · 49 Pkt. Venue-Spanne
