PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Não 95%-0.1pt
Qualidade do mercado
79 / 100
Alta qualidadeVolume 24h
2,1 mil €
Liquidez
48,2 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venda
4.8% / 4.9%
Spread
0.1 pt
Spread apertadoComentários
0
Variação 7d
-1.4 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 minutos
29/05/26, 13:14 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying blockade is: - Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours. - Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa). - Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
- A qualifying blockade is not: - Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access). - Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure). - Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement. - Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan. - Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
- The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Comparação de fontes de previsão
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
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- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Volume total
- € 9,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 245,5 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 mais resultados
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- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
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- December 317%
- September 301%
- July 310%
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- Volume total
- € 62,8 mi
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- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
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- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026??
- A Polymarket cota No em 95% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? é resolvido?
- Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Polymarket liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Onde mais Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? está listado?
- A mesma pergunta também está listada em Futuur.