Will the US mass airlift chips from Taiwan if China implements a blockade?
GeopolíticaOne-OffTecnologiaChina
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 66.2%
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Atualizado há 59 minutos
Atrasado13/07/26, 09:29 UTC1/01/50, 10:26 UTC
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Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that the United States government has organized, funded, or directly participated in a large-scale airlift of semiconductors or semiconductor wafers from Taiwan in response to a Chinese blockade, attempted blockade, or imminent blockade before January 1st 2050.
- “Large-scale airlift” means an exceptional evacuation effort involving multiple dedicated flights or a clearly coordinated operation intended to move a substantial quantity of strategically important chips out of Taiwan.
- Routine commercial shipments, isolated cargo flights, personnel evacuations carrying incidental chip cargo, or unconfirmed contingency plans do not count.
- A “blockade” includes a sustained Chinese military or coercive operation that materially restricts maritime or air access to Taiwan, even if China describes it using different terminology.
- A brief military exercise or temporary shipping disruption does not count unless reliable evidence indicates it functioned as an actual blockade.
- Evidence should come from credible reporting, official statements, flight or shipping records, company disclosures, or other independently verifiable sources.