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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. Ciência
  3. Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

4.0% (24h)One-OffCiência6m
PolymarketPolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Sim
Sim 7%-0.0%
Qualidade do mercado

24 / 100

Baixa qualidade
Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidez

1 mil €

Baixa liquidez
Compra / Venda

4.0% / 9.0%

Spread

125.0%

Spread amplo
Variação 7d

-2.5%

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 7 minutos

3/04/26, 22:4731/12/26, 0:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Yes7%

Regras

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
  • For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
  • If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
  • If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

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Ativos nestes tópicos

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Regras

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
  • For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
  • If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
  • If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.